Author: Marshall A. Toney

Banking, homebuilding, and government leaders urged Congress to expand housing reforms, saying the passed federal law missed barriers affecting Americans' ability to buy homes.
Large housing commitments from lenders and a rental platform highlighted financing interest, even as one banking executive said middle-income buyers were priced out.
That executive said a middle-income home needed $124K income after ~doubling in 5 yr, while 169 of 390 metros lacked enough supply.
Industry advocates said federal sourcing rules increase compliance demands, and a trade group estimated fees and related costs added $131K to building a new home.
Builders said local politics often shape project success, making public-private deals, timing, and cleaner deregulation important tools for developing communities more quickly.

US home prices ↑~0.3% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis in Mid-Q3, extending gains while easing slightly from the prior two months.
Yearly, US prices ↑~4%, the fastest growth pace in 12 mo, showing values kept climbing nationwide even as monthly momentum cooled recently.
Mid-Q3 brought the strongest buyer's market on record, as elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty kept demand subdued while homes for sale continued rising.
Even with softer monthly readings, prices were not falling nationally because many homeowners held substantial equity and faced little pressure to accept steep discounts.
For buyers, slower growth meant room to wait, compare, and negotiate; for sellers, realistic pricing from the start offered a better chance to attract attention.

Across the US, pending home sales edged ↑<1% MoM in the current month, while contract signings remained ↓~5% yearly, showing modest momentum but softer demand.
Buyers entering contracts even as mortgage rates increased, but higher borrowing costs offset buying power created by gains and income growth outpacing home prices.
Pending home sales based on signed purchase contracts for listed homes offer an early read on housing direction before transactions close and sales are recorded.
A mortgage survey put the current 30-yr fixed rate near 7%, slightly above the mid-6% level seen yearly, even after earlier lows.
Current cooler seasons typically bring fewer buyers, which can improve negotiating power, while warmer summer periods usually offer more available homes and broader selection.

Here’s a quick update on Williamsburg’s real estate activity this month. Homes are selling at similar prices as last year. Fewer properties are changing hands, and the number of available homes remains stable.

We’re seeing a shift in the national real estate landscape: 20.4% of active listings have undergone price reductions. After eight consecutive months of growth, homes going under contract dipped by less than 1% year-over-year in mid-Q3—evidence of how higher borrowing costs are starting to put the brakes on demand. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate peaked near 6.7% early in mid-Q3 and remained elevated, closing out the period more than 20 basis points above where it started. Even as demand softened, the market kept moving: the national median list price dropped to $424,500, active inventory increased by about 4%, and new listings slipped just a bit. Interestingly, fewer sellers stepped away—delistings fell roughly 13%—so buyers gained a bit more time and negotiating leverage, while sellers who priced strategically still found success. With over two decades in real estate, I’ve seen how steadier, not just lower, mortgage rates can influence both buyer and seller decisions. If we continue to see rates hover near 6.7%, sellers may need to consider further price adjustments or even rethink listing altogether. Navigating these changes is never simple, but insight and experience remain powerful tools for making the right move.

Builder confidence has reached its lowest point in a year, with the index dropping to 32 in late Q3. Sales conditions are also feeling the strain, now at 35, and expectations for the next six months slipped to 37. Buyer traffic stayed consistent at 23. Interestingly, 38% of builders nationwide have chosen to reduce prices, and two-thirds are offering incentives—up from 63% earlier in the quarter. Mortgage applications for new homes have now fallen for a fifth consecutive month, as average 30-year rates remain in the high-6% range. Larger builders are responding by using builder-paid rate buydowns, helping buyers secure below-market mortgages and keep momentum, rather than relying solely on price reductions. With 30-year rates holding close to 7%, two major housing forecasters anticipate these higher rates to persist through at least 2027. After more than two decades guiding clients through shifting markets, I know how important it is to stay aware of these trends. My experience helps clients navigate these complexities, whether buying or selling, ensuring they can make well-informed decisions even in challenging conditions.

Tracking inventory is a cornerstone of my approach to real estate, and the latest numbers tell a nuanced story. Nationally, active listings reached 1.14 million by mid-Q3 2026—a modest 4% increase year-over-year from 1.1 million. While that’s technically an uptick, it’s a far cry from the robust 21% growth we saw the year before. In fact, after dipping as low as 2% growth in late Q2, the recovery in supply has been slow and steady rather than explosive. By the close of mid-Q3 2026, 18 states and DC had finally surpassed their pre-pandemic 2019 inventory levels, even though the overall national supply still lags behind—down about 8% compared to mid-Q3 2019, with 1.14 million listings versus 1.24 million. These numbers highlight that, nationally, we haven’t fully rebuilt what was lost. The market’s dramatic post-boom correction has softened, leaving us in a period of gentle supply growth and flat pricing. As higher yields and mortgage rates continue to shape the market, it’s more important than ever to interpret these trends with the benefit of deep experience. Understanding these shifts is how I help clients make informed, confident decisions in any market landscape.